Fortune’s Philip Elmer-DeWitt carried this article on the slowing growth of the net books, and correlated it to the arrival of the iPad.
The article got this reaction from Paul Thurrott.
One of the more interesting of his remarks was that the actual volume of net books is around 30 millions, and that it is set to double in the next two years. His pertinent question was “Explain how the iPad will beat that?”.
I disagree with Fortune in the sense that I think that net books will not be “killed” by the iPad. They are definitely here to stay. I would also contest how the numbers are used to assert the conclusions of the article. In my opinion the links between the dates and the changes in volume does not permit to draw those conclusions.
You can find the numbers here.
On the other hand I also disagree with Paul Thurrott in the sense that I believe that in a couple of years there will be more iPad and iPad likes sold than net books.
In order to illustrate my point of view I’ll first have to digress towards the iPhone. Then explain what I think makes the iPad a sure winner, and why this type of devise has come to stay.
Finally I’ll present my idea of the future of the iPad.
iPhone first.
When the iPhone was launched it was promised a limited success due mostly due to the price and availability it’s being limited to certain providers only. Three years later iPhones and iPhone likes mobile phones (Apple, Android, Palm) have 40% of a marked that is exploding in terms of units sold.
By the way they all cost about the same (phone + voice & data subscription), that is so much for the argument of the iPhone being too expensive to become a mainstream device.
With Windows 7 for mobiles coming this fall the market share for smart phones will grow even faster.
I did not include one of the major players, RIM, in the count, because I consider them as a case apart. They have been hugely successful and their market share is about the same as the 4 others together. Even so I cannot get myself convinced that the BB is a modern phone, though this might change with the new version of the OS.
My gut feeling is that the future of RIM might be somewhat uncertain.
My conclusion is that with the arrival of the iPhone the potential smartphone market has become mainstream. And the main actors along with Apple are notably Android, Palm and Microsoft.
So the presence of “iPhone likes” is far stronger than the presence of Apple’s offering alone.
What makes the iPad a winner?
The iPad is not the first tablet, but it is the first successful implementation. This is mainly due to Apple daring a number of things that the other market actors did not. On a side note the volume of iPads sold proves, to me at least, that the phenomena goes beyond a buzz for geeks.
That said the main point where the iPad will hurt the netbooks is on the “information at your fingertips” aspect of the device. PC’s and laptops will also be hurt, likely more in terms of market share than in volume. Some of the growth will be taken away from that segment of the market.
The iPad breaks a couple of barriers. Battery life, on this one some of the net books are pretty close. Portability, usability and shareability when being ported. A net book, and a classic laptop for that sake, can be carried as well, but weight is a handicap. The keyboard, which we thought that we would never be able to live without, it makes carrying around awkward and gets in the way in so many situations. And it is at best clumsy when you need to pass a net book along between several people. Seen from a psychological standpoint the “L” shape of the net book or the laptop raises a barrier between people and thus hinders communication.
The iPad by contrast makes itself discrete (once the initial buzz has fallen down) and does not interrupt any more than a photo or a book passed around. It makes you forget it, to keep the focus on the content.
Adding the battery life, and the weight you will tend to bring it along, even if there is no obvious need.
A PC, laptop or net book is a “ME” computer. An iPad is much more of an “US” appliance.
As an example I write this blog entry at the breakfast table the iPad between the coffee and the toasts. I’m the only one up, and when the rest of the family arrives I’ll just push the little switch, and no one will remark that there is a computer at the breakfast table.
(yes it would be easier and quicker to write on my PC or my laptop. But I’m ready to pay this price for the freedom to roam. And once I’ve “unlearned” my established computer habits, the differences will become minor).
Once you have experienced this kind of “freedom” you will not want to let go of the device.
All this makes the iPad a winner.
Conclusion
But back to the question on how to have 30 to 60 million iPads sold at the end of 2012.
(Remember, this was Paul Trurrot’s initial question)
One needs to realize that the iPad represents a new market segment. Apple is so far the only (important) player in this market. By the end of the year at least HP and Android will be present with a credible alternate touchscreen tablet offering. And I think likely that also Microsoft will have a product for this market as well (I cannot imagine them staying away from this new market).
So by the end 2012 the market will have had two full years of tablet offerings from major players available to the customers.
And I think that the market of iPad and iPad like devices will easily reach the 30 to 60 millions units.
By then it will not matter if Paul Thurrott’s was right and Apple did not sell all of them.
And where the iPhone boosted an existing market, the iPad will have created a new market.
Oh and the net books ? They will of cause neither be killed nor eaten. But their golden area will be over.
