There is a lot of discussion of who will be the winner in the smartphone marked.
This month more Android phones was sold than iPhones. RIM and Microsoft are loosing marked share to Android and Apple….
I have this feeling that the debate is off on the wrong premises.
One of the reasons is that the discussion is mostly between technical journalists or bloggers like John Gruber and Seth Weintraub. And that they are comparing the wrong things.
You see this error over and over again.
What future for Nokia and RIM versus iOS and Android in the mobile marked?
If you take them one by one.
Nokia is a household known brand name, many different lines of mobiles,with different OSs.
RIM is a household known brand name, many different models, with one well known brand name blackberry and one OS (at least for the time being).
iOS is an OS, not very well known, with flavors (very close), used in the iPhone and iPad families. iPhone and iPad are household brands, iOS is not.
Android is an OS, not very well known, but available on many branded devices, brands that are well known;
LG, Samsung, HTC …
Each of these hardware makers “adapt” Android to differentiate their brand from the others.
So it is obvious that the discussion is comparing apples to oranges.
There are two main types of consumers: the geeks who will ask for and use a phone with symbian, android 1.8 or iOS 4.2, the rest of the world who will ask for and use a Nokia, a blackberry, a Samsung galaxy, an LG or an iPhone.
So comparing there may be more Android phones sold than iPhones or blackberrys, but there are more iPhones and blackberrys sold than LGs or HTCs, and of cause more Nokias sold than any other brand.
And while an OS (Android or iOS) may represent an industrial success, the marked success lies with a brand that is well known by the consumer.
In the announced low price smartphone war, soon to come, Android could very well be the big winner (remember industrial success), but it will be the hardware providers that will differentiate the phones in the eyes of the consumer. Unless Google comes out with an Android “95″ to rule them all.
I think that this possibility is in the thoughts of all the hardware makers, and it could provide a golden opportunity for the Windows phone, any license opening of Palm OS that might come from HP, and possibly other emerging actors in the phone marked (Apple and RIM will just have to cater for themselves).
But the bottom-line is that what will determine the outcome is what the consumer buys, not what the vendors sell.
So when we comment on the marked, let’s just compare what can be compared so the discussion makes sense.
My prediction for 2011 and beyond is that the war in the mobile space is far from over, actually it is just starting.
Happy 2011 to all smartphone users, whatever brand you use.
