A la question concernant la veille dame á qui tu fais peur, tu n’a pas vraiment répondu.

Pourtant, ça fais depuis des siècles la France se construis avec de bouseux, alors il suffit d’expliquer que la particule, est juste une particule.

Et que les bouseux continue de faire la France, comme depuis toujours.

Aujourd’hui ils porte des culotte, mais c’est une simple question de forme.

PS

Méfie toi des blonds!

I have this feeling that the debate is off on the wrong premises.
One of the reasons is that the discussion is mostly between technical journalists or bloggers like John Gruber and Seth Weintraub. And that they are comparing the wrong things.
You see this error over and over again.
What future for Nokia and RIM versus iOS and Android in the mobile marked?
If you take them one by one.
Nokia is a household known brand name, many different lines of mobiles,with different OSs.
RIM is a household known brand name, many different models, with one well known brand name blackberry and one OS (at least for the time being).
iOS is an OS, not very well known, with flavors (very close), used in the iPhone and iPad families. iPhone and iPad are household brands, iOS is not.
Android is an OS, not very well known, but available on many branded devices, brands that are well known;
LG, Samsung, HTC …
Each of these hardware makers “adapt” Android to differentiate their brand from the others.
So it is obvious that the discussion is comparing apples to oranges.
There are two main types of consumers: the geeks who will ask for and use a phone with symbian, android 1.8 or iOS 4.2, the rest of the world who will ask for and use a Nokia, a blackberry, a Samsung galaxy, an LG or an iPhone.
So comparing there may be more Android phones sold than iPhones or blackberrys, but there are more iPhones and blackberrys sold than LGs or HTCs, and of cause more Nokias sold than any other brand.
And while an OS (Android or iOS) may represent an industrial success, the marked success lies with a brand that is well known by the consumer.
In the announced low price smartphone war, soon to come, Android could very well be the big winner (remember industrial success), but it will be the hardware providers that will differentiate the phones in the eyes of the consumer. Unless Google comes out with an Android “95″ to rule them all.

I think that this possibility is in the thoughts of all the hardware makers, and it could provide a golden opportunity for the Windows phone, any license opening of Palm OS that might come from HP, and possibly other emerging actors in the phone marked (Apple and RIM will just have to cater for themselves).

But the bottom-line is that what will determine the outcome is what the consumer buys, not what the vendors sell.
So when we comment on the marked, let’s just compare what can be compared so the discussion makes sense.

My prediction for 2011 and beyond is that the war in the mobile space is far from over, actually it is just starting.
Happy 2011 to all smartphone users, whatever brand you use.

I disagree with Fortune in the sense that I think that net books will not be “killed” by the iPad. They are definitely here to stay. I would also contest how the numbers are used to assert the conclusions of the article. In my opinion the links between the dates and the changes in volume does not permit to draw those conclusions.

You can find the numbers here.

On the other hand I also disagree with Paul Thurrott in the sense that I believe that in a couple of years there will be more iPad and iPad likes sold than net books.

In order to illustrate my point of view I’ll first have to digress towards the iPhone. Then explain what I think makes the iPad a sure winner, and why this type of devise has come to stay.
Finally I’ll present my idea of the future of the iPad.

iPhone first.
When the iPhone was launched it was promised a limited success due mostly due to the price and availability it’s being limited to certain providers only. Three years later iPhones and iPhone likes mobile phones (Apple, Android, Palm) have 40% of a marked that is exploding in terms of units sold.
By the way they all cost about the same (phone + voice & data subscription), that is so much for the argument of the iPhone being too expensive to become a mainstream device.
With Windows 7 for mobiles coming this fall the market share for smart phones will grow even faster.

I did not include one of the major players, RIM, in the count, because I consider them as a case apart. They have been hugely successful and their market share is about the same as the 4 others together. Even so I cannot get myself convinced that the BB is a modern phone, though this might change with the new version of the OS.
My gut feeling is that the future of RIM might be somewhat uncertain.

My conclusion is that with the arrival of the iPhone the potential smartphone market has become mainstream. And the main actors along with Apple are notably Android, Palm and Microsoft.
So the presence of “iPhone likes” is far stronger than the presence of Apple’s offering alone.

What makes the iPad a winner?
The iPad is not the first tablet, but it is the first successful implementation. This is mainly due to Apple daring a number of things that the other market actors did not. On a side note the volume of iPads sold proves, to me at least, that the phenomena goes beyond a buzz for geeks.
That said the main point where the iPad will hurt the netbooks is on the “information at your fingertips” aspect of the device. PC’s and laptops will also be hurt, likely more in terms of market share than in volume. Some of the growth will be taken away from that segment of the market.
The iPad breaks a couple of barriers. Battery life, on this one some of the net books are pretty close. Portability, usability and shareability when being ported. A net book, and a classic laptop for that sake, can be carried as well, but weight is a handicap. The keyboard, which we thought that we would never be able to live without, it makes carrying around awkward and gets in the way in so many situations. And it is at best clumsy when you need to pass a net book along between several people. Seen from a psychological standpoint the “L” shape of the net book or the laptop raises a barrier between people and thus hinders communication.
The iPad by contrast makes itself discrete (once the initial buzz has fallen down) and does not interrupt any more than a photo or a book passed around. It makes you forget it, to keep the focus on the content.
Adding the battery life, and the weight you will tend to bring it along, even if there is no obvious need.
A PC, laptop or net book is a “ME” computer. An iPad is much more of an “US” appliance.

As an example I write this blog entry at the breakfast table the iPad between the coffee and the toasts. I’m the only one up, and when the rest of the family arrives I’ll just push the little switch, and no one will remark that there is a computer at the breakfast table.
(yes it would be easier and quicker to write on my PC or my laptop. But I’m ready to pay this price for the freedom to roam. And once I’ve “unlearned” my established computer habits, the differences will become minor).
Once you have experienced this kind of “freedom” you will not want to let go of the device.
All this makes the iPad a winner.

Conclusion
But back to the question on how to have 30 to 60 million iPads sold at the end of 2012.
(Remember, this was Paul Trurrot’s initial question)

One needs to realize that the iPad represents a new market segment. Apple is so far the only (important) player in this market. By the end of the year at least HP and Android will be present with a credible alternate touchscreen tablet offering. And I think likely that also Microsoft will have a product for this market as well (I cannot imagine them staying away from this new market).
So by the end 2012 the market will have had two full years of tablet offerings from major players available to the customers.
And I think that the market of iPad and iPad like devices will easily reach the 30 to 60 millions units.

By then it will not matter if Paul Thurrott’s was right and Apple did not sell all of them.

And where the iPhone boosted an existing market, the iPad will have created a new market.

Oh and the net books ? They will of cause neither be killed nor eaten. But their golden area will be over.

The good:
The quality of the writing is superb. None of the other apps I’ve been looking at are as good. You can see a sample of how writing with Penultimate looks like below.

The not so good:
The app seems to have been rushed to the AppStore with a number of unfinished or incomplete features. Hopefully this will be addressed in a future upgrade.
Small irritating thing. You cannot leave a blank page in the notebook.
If nothing has been written or drawn on the page it is impossible to turn the page and thus have the blank page inserted amongst the other

The bad:
Probably to get to the market quickly it was decided to leave a proper landscape mode out.
But without a proper landscape mode an application is not a proper iPad application.

Finger writing with Penultimate

PaperDesk LT by Webspinner
I only tried the free version of PaperDesk, so I might have missed some features.
Like Penultimate it uses the notebook metaphor.
On the first page you have the list of your notebooks with the names you’ve given them.
PaperDesk has more features than Penultimate.
It allows for mixing written and typed text, as well as drawing onto same page.
This allows to get very close to the moleskin metaphor that I was wishing for in my previous post on this subject.
In addition to this it allows for mixing sound that you record directly from within the application.
I honestly thought of this as more of a gadget, and felt no real incentive to try it.
Eventually I did try it, and I was blown away with the possibilities that it opens.
I do not think that it will work well to record a meeting, but to be able to add a voice comment to notes and drawings so easily has a great potential. It didn’t seem to work when send by mail though.
This could be a huge feature.

When writing and drawing you can use colors and different sizes of pens. I struggled a bit before I figured it out. In the options box where you set color and thickness you have a preview of the pen it’s size and color, but I did not find the use intuitive.
Entering text with the keyboard is pretty straightforward. You must imagine that you write on a transparent sheet that overlays your drawing and writing page.


The good:
The features which are numerous and rich, but mostly easy to use. The audio in-document recording capability.

The not so good:
When writing and drawing it is sometimes a bit ragged, like broken lines. You can see a sample of how writing with PaperDesk looks like below.
Strangely enough some options disappear in landscape mode.

The bad:
I did not really find any.

Finger writing with PaperDesk

Pricing:

Penultimate is $2.99.
PaperDesk is 1.99, but a free restricted version allows you to check it out for free.

Wrapping up.
PaperDesk has by far the most features, and they are mostly implemented to my liking.
Penultimate shows in many places that it has been rushed out before being quite ready. I like both applications but for the above reasons if I could keep only one it would be PaperDesk.

BUT:
With the iPad form factor and the difficulty to write small with a finger, I find that the volume of content that you can have on one page frustrating. None of the application have zoom capabilities which could be one way to fit more content on the page. Other like NoteTaker have introduced the notion of a zoomed input field. I’m sure that innovative solutions will be proposed by the applications (these two or others) in the coming months.
In the meantime I’ll continue trying and testing until I find “The Missing Application”

Flipping through the pages I’ll recognize the drawing a lot quicker than an address scribbled down.
In short I want the unstructured information that I enter to remain that way.
It might not make sense for you, but for me it does.

Some interesting applications does part of this and are available for the iPhone.
NoteTaker from Software Garden is such an application. It enables handwriting or rather finger writing as well as drawing. It is a very interesting application, but unfortunately the iPhone screen is too small for me.

I hope that an iPad version will soon arrive. I’ll be amongst the first to try it.

You also find wondrous drawing applications for both iPhone and iPad. I highly recommend Brushes, but there are many other good ones out there.

I think that this is what Microsoft attempted with OneNote, without really succeeding. I think that it is more due to hardware than to the actual implementation of the concept.

One can hope that Apple has something like this up their sleeve.

I would like this product to be my companion at all times. In order for it to achieve this I need to be able to take notes easily, to a drawing whenever I want to. Replace my sturdy notebook which today is my companion, and my extended memory when away from my computer.

For this to become reality I need a solution to my keyboard problem, and the missing application. (no there is not yet an application for that).

The keyboard problem*.
The iPad keyboard is available in portrait, and in landscape.
In landscape the keys are nice and big. You cannot thumb type like the iPhone as the keyboard is too large. If you want to type with both hands you need to lie the iPad on a flat surface. If you opt for typing with one hand you’ll quickly develop a tennis elbow. So much for typing in landscape mode.

In portrait it is a little bit better for one hand typing. Thumb typing however is still difficult, maybe for a person with bigger hands. For two hand typing the keyboard is too small.
This is what I’ve learned after a few days of use.

My conclusion is that the iPad is to be used with one hand to hold, the other to type. This is the general use, of cause there are occasions when you may type with both hands and in landscape.

Then I had an idea.
Why not provide an alternate keyboard, where the letters were placed in a manner optimized for one hand typing?
I see three good reasons for doing this :
It is easy to prove this kind of keyboard.
It would speed up one hand typing on the device.
Existing habits learned on classical computers are of no use here.

By the way, do anybody know of a method to learn typing with one hand?

Hopefully Apple will provide this in a future version of the iPad**.
(I do not think that direct modification og the system wide keyboard will be accepted on the AppStore)

*Yes I know that a bluetooth keyboard can be connected to sped up typing. But it does not provide a solution to MY problem.

**This post was written on my iPad.